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NEWS UPDATE: Gaming Guild and the Editor featured in a Chicago Maroon article on Capture the Flag
Read the article here
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Topic of the Moment:
The Purpose of a Belief (Part 1)
The Editor, Sheridan Lardner
October 2009
This is a response to the following paragraph, an excerpt from William James's Principles of Psychology, Chapter 21 entitled "The Perception of Reality".
"A philosophy may be unimpeachable in other respects, but either of
two defects will be fatal to its universal acceptance. First, its
ultimate principle must not be one that essentially baffles and
disappoints our dearest desires and most cherished powers. A
pessimistic principle like Schopenhauer's incurably vicious
Will-substance, or Hartmann's wicked jack-at-all-trades, the
Unconscious, will perpetually call forth essays at other philosophies.
Incompatibility of the future with their desires and active tendencies
is, in fact, to most men a source of more fixed disquietude than
uncertainty itself. Witness the attempts to overcome the 'problem of
evil,' the 'mystery of pain.' There is no problem of 'good.'
But a second and worse defect in a philosophy than that of
contradicting our active propensities is to give them no Object
whatever [p. 313] to press against. A philosophy whose principle is so
incommensurate with our most intimate powers as to deny them all
relevancy in universal affairs, as to annihilate their motives at one
blow, will be even more unpopular than pessimism. Better face the enemy
than the eternal Void! This is why materialism will always fail of
universal adoption, however well it may fuse things into an atomistic
unity, however clearly it may prophesy the future eternity. For
materialism denies reality to the objects of almost all the impulses
which we most cherish. The real meaning of the impulses, it
says, is something which has no emotional interest for us whatever. But
what is called extradition is quite as characteristic of our emotions
as of our sense. Both point to an object as the cause of the present
feeling. What an intensely objective reference lies in fear I In like
manner an enraptured man, a dreary-feeling man, are not simply aware of
their subjective states; if they were, the force of their feelings
would evaporate. Both believe there is outward cause why they should
feel as they do: either 'It is a glad world! 'how good is life!' or
'What a loathsome tedium is existence!' Any philosophy which
annihilates the validity of the reference by explaining away its
objects or translating them into terms of no emotional pertinency
leaves the mind with little to care or act for. This is the opposite
condition from that of nightmare, but when acutely brought home to
consciousness it produces a kindred horror. In nightmare we have
motives to act, hut no power: here we have powers, but no motives. A
nameless Unheimlichkeit comes over us at the thought of there
being nothing eternal in our final purposes, in the objects of those
loves and aspirations which are our deepest energies. The monstrously
lopsided equation of the universe and its knower, which we postulate as
the ideal of cognition, is perfectly paralleled by the no less lopsided
equation of the universe and the doer. We demand in it a character
for which our emotions and active propensities shall be a match. Small
as we are, minute as is the point by which the Cosmos impinges upon
each one of us, each one desires to feel that his reaction at that
point is congruous with the demands of the vast whole, that balances
the latter, so to speak, and is able to do what it expects of him. But
as his abilities to 'do' lie wholly in the line of his natural
propensities; as he enjoys reaction with such emotions as fortitude,
hope, rapture, admiration, earnestness, and the like; and as he very
unwillingly reacts with fear, disgust, despair, or doubt, -- a
philosophy which should legitimate only emotions of the latter sort
would be sure to leave the mind a prey to discontent and craving."
According
to James in Perceptions of Reality, there are two conditions under
which a theory will most readily receive universal acceptance. First,
the theory cannot “baffle or disappoint” our perceived strengths and
virtues. Second, that the theory cannot declare these perceived
strengths and virtues unimportant, the result of which is to “…deny
them all relevancy in universal affairs…” (James, 313). Upon
examination, this latter qualification appears most reasonable. No one
desires a meaningless life, and no one wishes to subscribe to a
doctrine that renders their actions inconsequential and trite. James
argues these points well. We must give him far less praise, however,
for his former argument.
James
writes far less on this first contention than he does on the second, so
it is fairly difficult to know exactly what he means by “baffle and
disappoint.” If we are to avoid plunging into the minutiae of
Schopenhauer and Hartmann, we must be content with James’s own example
of how a theory might disconcert its readers; “Incompatibilities of the
future with their desires and active tendencies is, in fact, to most
men a source of more fixed disquietude than uncertainty itself.”
(James, 312) James essentially claims that, if a theory produces an
incompatibility between a “future” and the current “desires” and
“tendencies” of “men”, then that theory is likely to be unpopular and
unsuccessful.
But
this is not remotely true. Many widely accepted and timelessly
successful theories demand man’s attention to substantial
inconsistencies between his current actions and a philosophized future.
Consider organized religions, whether Christianity, Islam, Buddhism,
Judaism, etc. Everyone must admit that these philosophies, if they can
so be called, are wildly popular in the world. Yet, they do not conform
to James’s idea of what makes a successful theory. These religions each
emphasize many inconsistencies between man’s present tendencies and
actions and a better proposed future. For instance, Christianity
postulates such a future is heaven and eternal salvation, a quite
appealing end. In order to reach that future, however, man must alter,
often radically, his current actions and tendencies; cease sin, adopt
virtue, attend worship, and so on. If we believed James’s conditions,
we would expect Christianity to never have gotten off the ground. After
all, how was such a faith to overpower the Roman and Gothic pagans and
their excessive and sinful ways? At least, this is what we would
expect James to inquire. Such a question would of course be wrong.
History affords countless examples of men converting to a religion
despite enormous discrepancies between their present way of living
(desires, actions, tendencies, etc.) and the future that religion
offers. For instance, consider many tribes of primitives and savages,
to borrow the nomenclature of the time. Historically, while their
present ways of life were completely incompatible with a future offered
by a Christian missionary, this discrepancy rarely prevented
conversion.
So it is in this respect that James’s reasoning falls short. Indeed, one might even uphold an opposite position to James’s; the purpose of philosophy or any creed is actually to create an incompatibility with man’s present tendencies, so that they can change in order to attain a more desirable future.
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NEWS, MARCH 2009:
The Editor featured on the University of Chicago, School of Social Service Administration Centennial front page
http://ssacentennial.uchicago.edu/features/features-crimelab.shtml
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Topic of the Moment:
GANGS AND URBAN VIOLENCE
Impressions from the SSA Symposium
The Editor, Sheridan Lardner
March 2009
“Gangs, guns, and drugs.” Three scourges of the city, declared by Chicago Police Superintendant Jody Weis as the ominous focuses at the daylong December 6 School of Social Service Administration Conference on Gangs and Urban Violence. Collaborating with Chicago Police Department, University alumni, and distinguished University faculty, the SSA sought in its celebratory centennial year to illuminate the shadowy underworld of Chicago’s gangs; their methods, motives, and the violent scars they leave on the community. Downtown Chicago’s Gleacher Center served as the meeting place for the conference, with seven diverse speakers gathering for seven equally diverse presentations. Co-directors of the University of Chicago Crime Lab, Professors Jens Ludwig and Harold Pollack, attended to share their findings and dialogue with a range of other experts in this defining conversation. Through examining the often misunderstood world of gangs, the SSA hoped to promote informed conversation on a topic critical to the future of law enforcement, social work, and the city of Chicago itself.
Leading off the event was Superintendant Weis, detailing the constant game of escalation between law enforcement and gangs. Laying out the fundamentals of the gang problem in Chicago, Mr. Weis emphasized the mobility and evolving structure of gangs in countering the police’s efforts. These efforts too were expanded upon, with Mr. Weis elaborating on a range of new strategies implemented to pressure Chicago’s gangs. The bad guys aren’t staying in one place, so neither should the police; this was Mr. Weis’s strategy as he described newly formed police units, free to deploy to any hotspot of crime, completely un-tethered by district or beat. Community also plays a critical role in the CPDs new tactics, with “Text-a-Tip” programs offering a cell-phone using generation easy and safe methods for alerting police and keeping their neighborhoods safe. Mr. Weis showed that even in a year as bloody as 2008, the police worked tirelessly to combat the forces of violence and destruction that threatened the safety of communities.
Plunging deeper into the sinister crevices of gang life, Sergeant Eddie Yoshimura of the Gang Intelligence Unit outlined the evolution of modern, Chicago gangs. To the gangs, Illinois Correctional Institutions and the streets exist in a symbiotic, although oftentimes disjointed, relationship. Through the lens of these two categories, Sergeant Yoshimura described the formation and leadership of four broader gang alliances: One Love, Latin Folks, Kings, and the Finballs. From the infamous Gangster Disciples of One Love, the Finball Vicelords, and the Latin Kings, the discussed groups and their members provided a chilling cross-section of Chicago’s gang situation. Punctuating his point on the brutality of gangs, the CPD supplemented Sergeant Yoshimura’s lecture by laying out an armory of gang weapons, from crude, medieval looking bats covered in industrial staples, to sleek Tec-9 and Mac-10 assault weapons. Sergeant Yoshimura emphasized the adaptability of gangs to current law enforcement strategy, and the complexity of gang hierarchy and history. His words added profound detail and weight to the observations already made by Mr. Weis.
Initiating the first of many University of Chicago presentations, SSA Associate Professor Dexter Voisin complemented the street-savvy discussion by the CPD with a more academic angle. Primarily referencing a survey of Southside high schools, Professor Voisin touched on the less tangible effects violence has on the community, and the less obvious victims of these effects. A sobering proportion of students at the studied institutions, unnamed for confidentiality, had not only been the direct victim of a violent crime, but merely witnessed a violent crime, or seen a dead body in a context other than at a funeral. Professor Voisin related children’s stories of watching friends and strangers hurt, robbed, and gunned down in front of their eyes, embodying the mentality of fear so responsible for driving violence in distressed communities. Collecting statistical evidence of falling grades, poor attendance, and troubled relationships between exposed children and their school teachers, Professor Voisin highlighted the oftentimes unseen damage that violence can have, not only on victims or perpetrators of violence. A bullet has only one target, but the spilled blood stains far more than just that one victim. Parents, siblings, friends, and mere acquaintances; the entire community becomes the victim.
Following a discussion-filled lunch break, University of Chicago Law School Professor Randolph Stone explained the legal system and its treatment of juvenile justice. With gangs comprised of mostly younger members, many in high school or younger, the realm of juvenile justice was a critical one for the conference. The former public defender for Cook County, Professor Stone made us consider some of his previous cases. Four gang members in a North Side housing project are charged with first degree homicide. Two are proven to be the shooters. Two were only lookouts. These two lookouts were both juveniles at the time of the shooting, targeting rival gang members visiting the neighborhood. Should you charge them with the murders? Should you charge them as adults? What mitigating and aggravating factors would you account for in making these decisions? In considering these disparate elements, Professor Stone discussed his own views on the current sentencing laws, condemning their harshness and imbalances, a stance many in the audience agreed with. Yet, during the ensuing Q&A session, equally many audience members expressed their concern about reducing legal punishments towards juveniles. Older, higher ranking gang leaders are notorious in their use of juveniles, or “shorties”, to transport drugs, oversee deals, and carry out violence. These men know full well the law’s blindspots for children, using younger members of the gang whenever possible knowing the law will be so lenient. Would lowering sentencing and prosecution standards for juveniles merely increase this rampant abuse? Or would it offer children a second chances for their mistakes? These are challenging questions, one the audience could not reach consensus on, but ones worthy of far more thought in relation to the larger gang question.
With “gangs” and “drugs” receiving a lot of attention thus far, it was McCormick Foundation Professor Jens Ludwig’s turn to tackle “guns”. Co-director of the Crime Lab, Professor Ludwig began by assessing the firearm situation nationwide, an educational talk that went over gun ownership facts, tackling the causative and correlative difficulties between crime and guns. While this attack on conventional wisdom was informative, it paled in comparison to Professor Ludwig’s incisive discussion of the underground Chicago gun economy. Public and media opinion often quivers in fear at the proliferation of handguns and assault rifles in the city; not only does every bad guy have a gun, but if they do not have one, it is a matter of just asking around and a few days until they acquire one. In a research paper coauthored by Philip Cook and Sudhir Venkatesh, Professor Ludwig offered compelling evidence to the contrary. Illegal guns are extremely difficult to purchase in Chicago. All potential transactions are plagued by high levels of distrust by both seller and buyer. Either party could be an undercover officer. Even if not, there is no honor amongst thieves, and there is no guarantee that one party does not just wish to rob the other. Markup prices are incredibly high, product quality varies drastically, and overall transaction time is not measured in days, but in weeks. Professor Ludwig described the limiting of weaponry to gangs by their leaders; predominantly organizations focused on the selling of drugs, gangs find their business damaged by increased police pressure in the wake of violence. As such, profit-minded leaders restrict gang access to guns. Coupled with the high-friction black market already described, Professor Ludwig repainted Chicago’s gangland. His concluding advice: law enforcement focus on guns and the few arms dealers would increase the friction of an already fragile market, putting a potentially sizable dent in urban gun violence.
The war on gangs, guns, and drugs is not one waged by just the police. Indeed, perhaps the best way to think of it isn’t as a war at all. Showing the effectiveness of a new approach to the decades-old problem, Dr. Gary Slutkin, MD ’75, gave a lecture on the work of his groundbreaking group CeaseFire. Under Dr. Slutkin’s direction, this organization treats the colloquially stated “epidemic” of urban violence as just that, an epidemic. A virus. CeaseFire operates on the philosophy that violence, like any virus, is caused by certain carriers. Isolate and stop the carriers, and you stop the virus’s transmission. Practically speaking, whether avenging a fallen gang or family member, shooting someone for disrespecting you, proving yourself with a pistol, or many other reasons, young men involved with gangs are prone to lethal behavior. Dr. Slutkin’s group deploys “interrupters” to high-risk areas, targeting high-risk people, and persuading them to put down their guns. Longtime community member, former gang member, recently out of prison; these are only some of the credentials boasted by the carefully selected and screened interrupters. These brave men and women enter street situations where violence is about to erupt, just trying to convince potential shooters not to pull the trigger in favor of any other alternative. Interrupters do not arrest. They talk. They encourage young men to think of their families, their friends, and the consequences of their actions. But mostly, they just try and stop the shooting. CeaseFire’s impact on Chicago neighborhoods has been tremendous. In the first year of implementation alone, the communities in which CeaseFire operated experienced a 45% decrease in shootings compared to a mere 10% reduction in all of Chicago. Between June 2006 and 2007, while CeaseFire’s neighborhoods saw a 50% shooting decrease, nearby communities not operated in actually experienced a 10% increase. Dr. Slutkin’s novel and effective approach has enjoyed stunning success in Chicago, and is now being implemented in other cities across the nation.
The difficult task of conclusion and contextualization fell to SSA Associate Professor Harold Pollack. Co-directing the University of Chicago Crime Lab alongside colleague Jens Ludwig, Professor Pollack sought to give some direction and perspective to the day’s presentations and dialogue on gangs, guns, and drugs. It is a time for new programs and new ideas, as exemplified in all the researched words that had been said. Yet, we must step with great caution. Research and evidence must drive our policy decisions, not common sense and apparently sound logic. Professor Pollack offered a policy example from the 60s. Is it a good idea to build apartment buildings in urban areas for welfare recipients and poor families to live, centralizing resources and residents to maximize help and opportunities? Apartments where these people will live just until they can get on their feet and find better work and income? Sounds like a fine idea, but this was the thought process that went into the infamous Chicago housing projects like Robert Taylor and Cabrini-Green. Employing cautionary examples like this, Professor Pollack urged the audience to research their methods before employing them on such a wide and potentially devastating scale as was seen in the Chicago Housing Authority projects. Professor Pollack exemplified the SSA dedication to the intersection between theory and practice, showing that it was not enough to just observe the gang problem. Something must be done. Whatever is done, however, must be thoroughly researched and investigated before being put into wide use. It is this strategy which was a powerful endpoint for the December symposium, and one that will now be a cornerstone of the University of Chicago Crime Lab,
Seven presentations. Three scourges. One unifying hope. Lurking in the words of every speaker, hidden in every topic, was an underlying and overarching goal of bettering this world. Whether through the street-level interactions of police and gang members, the judicial responsibility towards crime, or the researchers who must inform policy, everyone gathered towards a common purpose of Chicago-wide improvement. By the end of 2008, the cities murder rate had climbed to 510 dead, the highest since 2002. Not only were 80% of these murders committed with guns, but at least half of them were gang-related or motivated. Gangs and urban violence will continue to play a decisive role in Chicago’s infamous claim to the murder capital of America, but symposiums like the one on December 15th prove that people are not standing idly by. Through initiatives such as the Crime Lab, the University continues to work with the community to erase the bloody marks of the past and put an end to living in fear. At least for Chicago’s immediate future, this pursuit will always stare down its three greatest enemies; gangs, guns, and drug
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THE MOST IMPORTANT GENERATION
PUDDLE CENTURY
The Editor, Sheridan Lardner
Week of July 21 - July 27
A gentlemen wheeling around a 1990s model Jewel shopping
cart and wearing a Grateful Dead t-shirt informed me today “The world is in a
puddle.’ Not only is it in a puddle, but “A deeper and wider puddle than ever
before.” Now, I had made no indication that I wanted to converse with this
fellow. I had climbed a set of stairs on an underpass, and he had made this
remark while at the top, speaking down to me. In a less sweaty element I may
have stopped. Perhaps, however, things are better with my continuing on. First
of all, puddles are not objectionable. In the last decade, I captained a fleet
of Lego ships as they battled across these brackish seas, constructed stick and
stone Colossi towering above the water, and ambled through as if the pool were
a portal-like reflection of a mightier ocean. Few more wonderful images exist
than that of the child playing in the rain. These days it is harder to find
one, with many young ones choosing the Playstation over the puddle. I confess
that there have been many days where I personally opted to pwn some sorry noobs
in DoTA instead of frolicking in the storm. Yet there have been at the very
least an equal number of days where I have confronted rambunctious Thor in the
heavens above. It was in the Northeast American woods that I came across the
god of the puddles below, and it is always a challenge to determine which
journey was the grander. One day
I embarked upon an adventure at the end of a downpour. At a point, I came upon
a fairly drowned path, so I resolved to simply leap over it. As anyone that has
had a similar experience will recollect, instead of landing in the relatively
shallow water on the walkway, I plopped into the thick, muddy grass on the
other side. Like any good adventurer, I had prepared for most everything.
Except landing in that puddle. So that time, the above paragraph did not ring
so truly to my ears. Sorrowful thing too, for this is a majority opinion
amongst adults (unsurprisingly), teenagers (somewhat surprisingly), and
children (sadly astounding). Nature is a terrible inconvenience for this world,
and puddles are not left behind in our intolerance. People hate parking in them
and having to leap across. They hate fouling plush skateboard shoes or gleaming
heels in the depths. Puddles beautiful? No. An inconvenience. So what
if I had wet socks and a small ecosystem in my shoes throughout that days
questing? I am a strong guardian of the puddle and what it represents. You will
never find Sheridan Lardner hiding inside from a perfectly good tempest. But
what about my Grateful Dead friend? What had his comment meant? I did not speak
with him further, and I will not assume anything about his own
puddle-proclivities. Yet, he meant something in his quote (unless the chap was
referring to the abundance of water on the planet’s surface, in which case,
ignore the rest of this piece and send me a snide email). Rare is it to come
across a contemporary word puzzle, and rarer still that your eyes and paths
intersect on the road. It begged an inquiry, as if the man had approached me
and handed me the words on a piece of paper, “I have these words here that I
can’t make heads or tails out of. What are your thoughts?” The
world is in a fix. Even my mother, who always lectures at length on the
importance of reading the newspaper, refuses to engage with current events due
to the disasters therein. Far far away, bullets and bombs defile the nation of
old Babylon, the rock oil that Asterix and Oblelix diligently hunted is no
longer so easily found as a spout carrying the seeker high into the desert air.
Consumer confidence falls like the stocks of General Motors, an election for
supposed change crumbles into squabbles and accusations, and soldiers die
defending their own base in a country that was supposedly pacified. Without
reeling out too much doom and gloom, suffice to say that the world as a whole
faces real challenges on a scale not before seen. Many contend that this is
merely the rambling of overspeculative pundits, that the same anxieties existed
in our parent’s and our parent’s parent’s generation, that all their worry
turned out to be without real cause. Instinct should serve as a guide in these
matters, and my own gut, as well as that of many others, indicates that
something is terribly amiss. Pinpointing the source of global uneasiness and
woes lies in the same realm as cold fusion, dark energy, and green fuel, but
that is not important so far as this argument goes. All that matters is that
the world does have serious problems, and that is maybe what is meant by “in a
puddle.” It certainly seems reasonable, considering that the world is dominated
by the types of people that hate puddles, so they naturally would place a
pejorative bend on the word. And why not? Dark clouds show no sign of departure
anytime soon, and their likes multiply daily. Two things
about this argument are off. In the first place, the Grateful Dead man did not
appear the type to feel similarly to puddles as the majority. There was a bit
of childhood remaining. Secondly, as I have said before, in the arts, feeling
is always meaning, and there is an artistic quality to his words. So when I
feel that there is something more than
just mere pessimism, I am inclined to think there truly is. What if the world
were indeed in a puddle, but in the sense that a child is saying it. Not a
miring, inconveniencing puddle, but the deep sea, portal, fragment of a far off
bog sort of puddle. A kind of puddle as viewed by Guillermo Del Toro instead of
Donald Trump. The puddle from which a kraken rises to beset Lego caravels, under
which dark things crawl in an inky well, for which action figures from far and
wide journey to swim in. Not the literal puddle under your car door, but the
imaginative one, the figurative one that followed you from your fifth birthday
onwards. Now
that would be cause for hope. No true imaginative child overlooked the dark
places for the light, or vice versa. As fun and carefree as puddle stomping is,
or all other games associated, so too is there that sense of dread at murky
mire, that same feeling when you first gazed upon some enchanted and evil swamp
from whatever cartoon or story. Unknown things are within, and it seems wholly
unnatural that while lakes and seas are forever there to our eyes, their
offspring are so fleeting and yet just as fulfilling. This sense of unease,
fear even, towards puddles surely applies to this world. Our woes and fears are
aimed at the unknown and the dark, whether the darkening bank accounts, gas
prices, or security prospects. A child would see it this way as well. But
bleakness does not reign unchallenged. For all there was to cringe at in the
puddle, there were equal things to grin and smile. Uncover one slimy thing and
discover something grand to even it out
(not to imply there is anything wrong with the slimy ones). If this is what my
Grateful Dead friend meant, then there is cause for rejoice indeed. His words
acknowledge that the state of the world can either be viewed as a horrible
inconvenience and barrier, or an opportunity for adventure. I fear triviality
more than most, but I offer examples anyway. Students lacking in employment can
either bemoan their lack of work, or revel in free days of contemplation and
adventure. Those without money for gas can grimace about taking the bus, train,
bike, or sidewalk, or they can laugh at the jokes they hear, the odd faces they
see, the exercise they attain. Triviality will overtake these examples, if it
has not already, so I must stop now. Consider, though, what it means for the
world to be in a puddle. Consider it as muddy adversity for your shoes to
overcome. Or see it through my own eyes. Mirror, mirror, upon the ground, in which dreams dwelled and
reality drowned.
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ZIMUGABEWE VS ZIMORGANWE
The Editor, Sheridan Lardner
Week of June 23-29
Like most nations in the region, Zimbabwe has just seen its bid for
real progress imprisoned, tortured, stomped, beaten, and shot by
President-backed goongsquads from across the country. With almost 100
critical officers of the incumbent M.D.C dead, thousands more wounded,
and hundreds of thousands displaced, Mugabe and his ZANU-PF has won
another round, and will likely be staying for just a little bit longer.
We can lament democracy's loss to the clearly illegitimate tactics of
Mugabe's cronies. We can call down all sorts of AU, UN, American
special-forces, fire on top of his head. And we can always write
disappointed and incensed opinions pieces. But perhaps Morgan
Tsvangirai's June 23 dropping out is a good thing. Yes, he only dropped
out because of increasing violence against his supporters and a genuine
care for their wellbeing. That being said, at this point in Zimbabwe's
time, a M.D.C government would not succeed. Two obstacles stand firmly
entrenched between Mr. Tsvanigirai and any possible success in the
nation, even if he had beaten Mugabe in the runoff.
On a patently obvious level, even if Morgan had claimed 102% of the
votes (as Mugabe likely has in the past), the ZANU-PF leader would not
have stepped down peacefully. In fact, he would not have stepped down
at all. He would have remained in Harare, sent his legions of
barely-legitimate soldiers and totally unjustifiable youth gangs to
eliminate all opposition, and sat comfortably on the undeniable truth
that a man cannot become president if he is dead, which Morgan surely
would have been. In many African nations, control of presidential power
translates to total control of armed force. Trying to beat Mugabe at
the game of Zimbabwe politics is like playing Monopoly against a guy
who has hotels on 3/4 of all properties, compared to your few houses
down near Baltic Avenue. And he can reroll the dice. And there's no
such thing as "just visiting" in jail. In fact, it seems every chance
card has that same policeman on it, except he has an AK-47 instead of a
whistle.
A victory by Morgan at the ballot box would have
translated to a massacre in the streets, of that there is no doubt.
Mugabe himself proudly stated, a smile on his face, "How can a
ballpoint pen fight with a gun?" Or at another rally (not that he needs
rally's to drum up support), "Only God who appointed me will remove me
- not the MDC, not the British!" Don't remind Mugabe that the British
have about as much influence on the Zimbabwe elections as LaRouche has
on ours. Regardless of the specific words, Mugabe was clear. Hell no
he won't go.
An even worse possibility lingered in the air.
What if Morgan actually legitimately lost? Never mind that this loss
would be due to the incessant and brutal intimidation tactics used by
Mugabe on voters and MDC party officials. If the ballots had proclaimed
Mugabe as the winner, Zimbabwe would have little to hope for. As it
stands, there is a high possibility of outcry against the outrageous
actions of Mugabe. But, had a legitimate win been achieved (despite the
threats), Mugabe would have more force in his counter arguments. More
importantly, the people of Zimbabwe would feel defeated. As of now, at
least from my ocean-away perspective, it seems they feel more cheated
than anything else. Yet, the fire of change and Morgan still burns
within, at least to an extent. A loss at the ballot box would have
extinguished this fire. Once Mugabe leaves this world, their sentiments
will remain, and Morgan or Morgan 2.0 can come and fulfill their
desires. This may have been severely threatened if Mugabe proved he
could win semi-legitimately.
Now, let us imagine that Mugabe not only lost the ballot battle, but
the bullet one too. Maybe he falls to an army coup. Maybe outside
pressures kick him out. Maybe he wakes up one morning and does a moral
180, apologizes for his deeds, and cedes power to the rightful ruler,
Mr. Tsvangirai. All these scenarios are painfully unlikely in reality,
but up until June 23, they were the possibilities entertained by MDC
hopefuls. So, let us imagine one of them happens and Morgan Tsvangirai
becomes President of Zimbabwe. Out of the woods (er jungle) yet? Not at
all. Best case scenario would be a gradual push towards improvement,
against all geographic odds and against those bitter Mugabe supporters
still lingering around with their grudges and guns. With enough foreign
aid and internal spirits, this could succeed. But, if African history
is any indicator of things to come, a more likely alternative would
spawn. From Liberia to the Congo, Somalia to Rwanda, the transition
from anarchy/despotism/police state to democracy and liberation has
always been a horribly dangerous transformation. On the one hand, so
many forces could spoil the party. But on an equally horrifying hand,
the party-thrower could get a bit too heady.
If Mr. Tsvangirai
were to attain power and beat back all the odds, there is no guarantee
that he would not become a dictator in the Taylor, Mugabe, Aidid, Amin
fashion. History is certainly against him in this case. If Morgan were
to rally his own MDC mobs to put down the old Mugabe loyalists and
their supporters, it could be a recipe for Rwandan or Sudanese
genocide. Or even worse. This would be a huge blow to democracy in
Africa, showing that even a fully democratically elected leader is not
immune to the hunger for power and the forces that government places in
his hand. Democracy will have another shot in Zimbabwe in the future.
But it has failed so badly this time. Sadly, perhaps its next 'shot'
will be a bit more literal and bit more deadly.